San Diego Real Estate Market Forecast 2022 | 2023 (Updated)

We entered the real estate market of San Diego in 2022 with expectations of a continued bull market in housing sales balanced by low mortgage interest rates. We are now several months into the year, and there have been some dramatic changes in the real estate industry and the financial world. All statistics are as of this writing.

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Inflation is no longer a forecast; it is a reality. We have been used to interest rates of less than 5%, and we now must look at the possibility of higher costs for mortgages in Southern California. It is a sobering thought that there might be high house prices and high-interest rates. Therefore, it is an excellent time to take a second look at where the market is going and what a potential homebuyer should be thinking about as the year progresses.

Here's a quick rundown of our list:

The National Prognosis

We need to put politics and opinions aside for a moment. Instead, we should be looking at the figures and what they suggest to us. We also must keep in mind that anything can cause a change in direction. Economic forecasting is vulnerable to both crisis and good news. 

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Recent inflation figures have shocked the system, and American consumers have not seen such data in decades. The annual inflation rate nationally was 8.5% in March 2022. That is the highest it has been since December 1981. In February, the rate went down to 7.9%, which was lower than the forecast. However, gasoline prices went up 40%, and the consumer price index rose 6.5%, which was below forecasts but still more than in 40 years. The inflation rate for May is projected to be 8.2%.

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These may be the high figures for the year. Bloomberg has predicted that inflation will go up by 5.1%, and the war in Ukraine can influence that final figure. Forecasts into the future are optimistic, with projected rates going down a little bit. Nevertheless, we are looking at an increase in overall prices. Building materials, those which are used for residential construction, are up 8% thus far in 2022. Those increases in building materials will impact the number of new houses contractors will build this year. 

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It does not look too good for mortgage rates to go down soon. The Federal Reserve intends to raise the Federal Funds rates several times this year to bring down inflation, and experts expect that mortgage rates will continue to move upward. How high and how fast the interest rates will go up on mortgages depends on whether the Feds can curb them.

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Currently, the National Mortgage Interest Rate Average is 5.48% for a 30-year fixed mortgage and 4.74% for a 15-year fixed mortgage.

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San Diego Rate of Inflation

Okay, we have amazing beaches and fantastic weather, but we must pay for these luxuries. In March, the Consumer Price Index showed a 7.9% increase from the same time last year. Unfortunately, the Cost of Living Index does not do us any favors. We are currently at 160.4. While that is undoubtedly better than San Francisco, which registers 244, the Cost of Living index jumped dramatically over 2021.

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What might scare the pants off the prospective house buyers is how the value of San Diego homes has jumped. According to Zillow, the typical home value of San Diego houses is now $969,595. That is an increase of 27.9% over the past year. To understand how prices skyrocketed in the recent past, the value of a home in November 2021 was $885,000. It paints a rather grim picture for those contemplating buying a house.

Mortgage Rates in San Diego

The secret to house affordability in San Diego is that low-interest rates balance the high sales price. Buyers were once concerned but not stressed out by what their monthly mortgage bill was going to be. Well, now we have a situation where the cost of housing is rising. The same is true for mortgage rates.

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As of this writing, the 30-year fixed rate in San Diego is 5.4515%. The mortgage interest for a 15-year fixed rate is 4.512%.

When you compare it to the national figures cited above, that does not seem too bad. But let's look at what this means in real dollars when you compare the cost of the house in November 2021 with the price right now.

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If you were only going with the November value of a home and used the above 30-year fixed rate, the annual interest payment would be $48,245.77. Considering the present home value and that same 30-year fixed interest rate, the current annual interest payment would be $52,857.47. We will do the math for you: the difference is $4611.70. Yeah, things are starting to look a little bit rough.

Own a home in San Diego and you want to get a personalized home valuation for it to see how much you can walk away in profit in this exciting market? See Now ›

Available Housing in San Diego

Prices are affected by the supply of available units. A large market of houses for sale either brings prices down or arrests the growth. San Diego is a wonderful place to live if you can afford it. We have been lucky compared to San Francisco in many areas, and we have always thought of ourselves as a more livable place. Unfortunately, we have some less than wonderful news.

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San Diego has bypassed San Francisco and is the nation's least affordable metropolitan area for housing. That was the finding of OJO Labs in a recent research study. So, we are in an unusual predicament. The greater San Diego area shows a decline in existing home sales, but sales prices continue to rise. 

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Inventory is a problem. A housing market is considered balanced if there is a 4 to 6-month inventory of homes available. When it comes to existing single-family homes, San Diego has an inventory of 1.4 months! There are not enough sellers to bring the prices down. It is a seller's market currently. Real estate can only switch to a buyer's market if supply rises to an inventory of five months. That is not likely.

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New listings only add to this somewhat gloomy figure in the San Diego area. As of February 2022, listings have decreased 15.8% for Detached Homes and 23.3% for Attached Homes compared to February 2021. In addition, pending sales are falling in the double digits: 18.9% for Detached Homes and 18.7% for Attached Homes. Overall, the Months Supply of Inventory decreased by 10.0% for detached homes and 33.3% for attached homes.

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Has Covid-19 made any impact on the supply? That does not appear to be the case, but something pandemic-related impacts property availability.

Historically, evictions and foreclosures will bring houses onto the market as former tenants lose the right to rent or own the property. Recently, California courts suspended eviction foreclosure proceedings across California. The suspension is intended to stay in effect until 90 days after the coronavirus state of emergency has been lifted. We agree that this is important for the common good, and California needs to be compassionate to those who can no longer afford housing due to pandemic-related job loss. However, there are consequences.

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A source of new listings is now temporarily on hold. The process for evictions and foreclosures without having additional constraints imposed. The court-ordered suspension makes the housing market even tighter than it was before.

We must face the facts. San Diego is the most expensive housing market in the United States. Earnings have not been able to keep pace with increasing house prices, and we are locked into a seller's market for some time to come. Now what?

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We know that what we have shared with you in this article sounds depressing. You spent years saving up for a house and made extraordinary sacrifices for that down payment and rearranged your budget to afford mortgage payments. There is always a silver lining to a dark cloud when we look at things. You must find that white streak, which takes a little bit of focused research.

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We do not think it is time for prospective buyers to pass around the crying towel. San Diego County has opportunities, but it requires a more focused approach to house hunting and financing. Of course, neither is impossible, but both need to be done.

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Where is the Money Coming From?

Hopefully, you have been very sensible and saved up your money for a down payment. The big challenge is going to be where to get a mortgage loan. You are fortunate if you live in San Diego County. There are hundreds of financial institutions that you can approach about the possibility of a loan.

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What is your credit score look like right now? If you have a score of over 750, you stand an excellent chance of getting a mortgage loan with a reasonable, if not low, figure. If you do not, you might do something about that score as soon as possible. Low credit scores do not necessarily mean that you will not get a loan, but you will pay a higher interest rate, which could cost you thousands of dollars over the life of a mortgage. So, whatever you can do to bring that credit score up, which would include paying off some of your credit card debt and paying other bills perhaps ahead of the due date, will help.

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You have some alternatives to commercial lending institutions if you want to consider them. Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans are standard financial instruments for those who are first-time buyers. A 3.5% down payment for those with credit scores over 580 is hard to resist. You also can qualify if the credit score is around 500, provided you are willing to come up with a 10% down payment. In the price negotiations, a seller can pay up to 6% of the loan amount that will cover closing costs for the buyer.

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Of course, FHA is not the only way to go depending on your eligibility. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) also sponsors home mortgage loans, and if you are a veteran check out what the Veterans Administration (VA) will provide.

Find out what the latest and greatest San Diego home loans are right now. Detailed video and post reveals all. See it Now ›

House Hunting with the Purpose

Inflation and rising interest rates are scary stories, but these financial facts should not frighten you into making a poor decision. The house is a home, and though you are looking for an affordable price, you want a residence where you can feel safe and comfortable. Let's face it; you will get a lower price if you happen to be in a slum or high-crime area. Do you truly want to raise your kids there?

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House hunting includes looking at the neighborhood and what the amenities are. The house itself needs an appropriate number of bedrooms, bathrooms, a garage, and a suitable living space. You should figure out the dimensions of the property you want before you start looking.

Seek Professional Help

We do not mean that you should see a counselor or therapist! You are not crazy for trying to buy a house in these expensive times. However, we think you would be out of your mind if you tried to do this solo. Buying a home in San Diego County is not a DIY project.

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We mean that you should be thinking about working with a real estate agent when you go looking for that dream house. Forget what some of the cable TV guys are telling you about going alone. You are asking for trouble; we mean the expensive kind. People who try to buy a house by themselves and are unfamiliar with real estate can lose out. Real estate agents will help with finances, shop for the right place, and be a great ally during the closing process. Agents can negotiate a sales price down a few thousand dollars at least. In addition, you can save on the final mortgage loan when you have a good agent.

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We have helped people purchase property in San Diego County for years, and we know the territory. We can help you find the right place that fits your lifestyle and budget nicely. We are more than just real estate agents; we are a licensed mortgage loan originator. That will be extremely helpful as you arrange your house by finances.

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The real estate market in San Diego has some challenges, but they are not impossible mountains to climb. We will give you the help that you need. If you want to know more about us, please feel free to contact us as soon as you are ready. We are here to make the house hunting and buying process simple.

? I would love to help assist you with your home purchase, home sale, or home loan - please feel free to give me a call, text, or use the form below. 

Your Market Forecast Insider, 

Scott

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4305 Properties
Page 1 of 120
$939,000
Condo: The Crest At Del Mar
2
Beds
2F11/2
Baths
1,351
Sq.Ft.
1998
Year Built
1
Day on Site
220025003
MLS
This tranquil and hilltop-appointed south-facing townhome dazzles with natural lights, captivating ocean breeze in summer and soothing warm air in winter. Vaulted ceiling! No carpet! Upgraded with...
3
Beds
2
Baths
2,455
Sq.Ft.
1935
Year Built
1
Day on Site
305790821
MLS
Old Town District La Mesa-Timeless Beauty. This Home is a Short Walking Distance to All Your Favorite Places, Personal Residence-Vacation Home, with Stunning Views, 3 Bedroom, 2 Full Bath Home with...
$6,895,000
Neighborhood: Covenant
4
Beds
3F21/2
Baths
5,284
Sq.Ft.
1990
Year Built
1
Day on Site
305797926
MLS
Completely renovated with the highest finishes, this gated 3.54-acre west Covenant 4+ bedroom estate is ready for its new homeowners! Light and bright with the perfect blend of contemporary luxury,...
$699,000
Neighborhood: El Cerrito Heights
2
Beds
1
Baths
726
Sq.Ft.
1937
Year Built
1
Day on Site
220025004
MLS
BEAUTIFULLY UPDATED HOME IN CHARMING EL CERRITO HEIGHTS WITH MAJESTIC MOUNTAIN VIEWS. COMPLETE WITH GLEAMING HARDWOOD FLOORING, GRAINTE COUNTERS, SS APPLIANCES, NEWER VANITY AND CUSTOM CERAMIC TILE...
$2,150,000
Neighborhood: Bankers Hill
2
Beds
2
Baths
1,875
Sq.Ft.
2018
Year Built
2
Days on Site
220024978
MLS
Welcome to THE PARK Bankers Hill, one of San Diego's most sought-after iconic addresses! A harmonious blend of the world's finest materials create a timeless canvas of texture and color unique to...
$1,295,000
Neighborhood: Harbor Pointe
3
Beds
2
Baths
1,404
Sq.Ft.
1988
Year Built
2
Days on Site
220018654
MLS
Back on the Market - with a beautiful kitchen recently upgraded with an open concept, new quartz counter tops, white ceramic single bowl sink and stainless stove. Enjoy Coastal living year round in...
4
Beds
3
Baths
2,298
Sq.Ft.
1989
Year Built
2
Days on Site
305797080
MLS
Two Bedrooms & two full Bathrooms on the first floor & two Bedrooms and full Bath on the 2nd floor. Primary Bedroom features large walk-in closet (enter from the Bathroom or the bedroom). Notice that...
1
Beds
1
Baths
719
Sq.Ft.
2004
Year Built
2
Days on Site
305800999
MLS
Downtown Little Italy at its best. This wonderful unit is situated in the gorgeous newly remodeled Aqua Vista building. The one bedroom, one bath condo has been remodeled with new paint and vinyl...
$1,299,000
Neighborhood: Torrey Ranch
4
Beds
3
Baths
1,920
Sq.Ft.
2011
Year Built
2
Days on Site
220024979
MLS
Welcome to Torrey Ranch! This impeccably cared for home offers the ultimate in flexibility and convenience! Main floor bedroom and full bath offers options galore! Perfect place for guest bedroom...
$765,250
Neighborhood: Sabre Springs
3
Beds
2
Baths
1,267
Sq.Ft.
2005
Year Built
2
Days on Site
220024981
MLS
Savannah Terrace!!! New Paint New Carpet! 3 Bedroom 2 bath on the 2nd floor. Attached is 2 car garage with entry stairs to the unit. Resort living with 2 large Swimming pools, Spa, Tennis,...
$829,900
Neighborhood: East Village
2
Beds
2
Baths
1,191
Sq.Ft.
2007
Year Built
2
Days on Site
305801416
MLS
Great opportunity to own in the highly desirable Smart Corner building in East Village!! Rarely available this 18th floor unit features a wrap around balcony with panoramic Ocean and City views, 2...
3
Beds
2
Baths
1,633
Sq.Ft.
1963
Year Built
2
Days on Site
305801421
MLS
Another beautiful AJX Remodel. As you pull in front of this home you will notice there is enough parking in drive way to fit 5 cars with a drive in entrance to the back yard from the side. This home...
$1,450,000
Neighborhood: Point Loma Heights
4
Beds
2
Baths
1,062
Sq.Ft.
1953
Year Built
2
Days on Site
220024982
MLS
Ocean Beach. This house is just a few miles away to the ocean, walking distance to local shops, and school. Conveniently close to the Naval Base Point Loma, MCRD, the Liberty Station, San Diego...
$1,878,990
Neighborhood: Homestead @ The Farm
5
Beds
4F11/2
Baths
3,673
Sq.Ft.
2022
Year Built
2
Days on Site
220024983
MLS
The Farm in Poway is a masterplan community featuring five new collections in Poway, CA. Residents enjoy ample conserved open space and one and two-story homes. The nearby area is host to nature...
$830,000
Neighborhood: Allied Gardens
4
Beds
2
Baths
1,242
Sq.Ft.
1956
Year Built
2
Days on Site
220024985
MLS
Mid-Century Modern Home in centrally located Allied Gardens neighborhood. Per the seller: Refinished original red oak hardwood floors, vaulted ceilings, dual pane windows throughout entire house and...
Open 10/8
2950 South Grade Rd. Alpine, CA 91901
$1,775,000
Neighborhood: Alpine
5
Beds
3
Baths
1.82
Acres
1956
Year Built
2
Days on Site
220024986
MLS
Seller to entertain offers between 1,625,000 - 1,775,000. Welcome to Villa Oasis! Your Shangri-la in the heart of Alpine. Villa Oasis is an enchanting fenced and gated compound with 3 homes, view,...
3
Beds
2F11/2
Baths
1,656
Sq.Ft.
1992
Year Built
2
Days on Site
305783633
MLS
Amazing opportunity west of Coast Hwy! Beautiful sunny end unit with peek views of the Pacific Ocean in a small & quiet gated condo complex just a couple blocks to the stunning beaches, iconic pier,...
$425,000
Neighborhood: Oceana South III
2
Beds
2
Baths
1,050
Sq.Ft.
1975
Year Built
2
Days on Site
220024988
MLS
Welcome home to this very clean and well taken care of home in Oceana South. A popular and affordable 55+ community only eight minutes to the beach! This floorplan features a nice open living room...
$1,595,000
Neighborhood: Olde Carlsbad- Highland Dr
2
Beds
1
Baths
1,046
Sq.Ft.
1954
Year Built
2
Days on Site
220024991
MLS
Amazing opportunity... Panormaic Ocean Views... Fabulous lot and location on west side of highly desired Highland Drive... huge 13,600 sf all useable lot... This single story home offers charm,...
Coming Soon on 10/06
4060 Porte La Paz #40 San Diego, CA 92122
$775,000
Neighborhood: La Jolla Colony
2
Beds
2
Baths
1,086
Sq.Ft.
1985
Year Built
2
Days on Site
220024995
MLS
Lower level 2 master suites open floorplan in excellent south facing interior location with spacious patio. Nicely upgraded light neutral interior. Updated kitchen and baths, flooring, fixtures, &...
Open 10/6
12132 Royal Birkdale Row #305E San Diego, CA 92128
$665,000
Neighborhood: Masters Hill
3
Beds
2
Baths
1,464
Sq.Ft.
1987
Year Built
2
Days on Site
220024996
MLS
More photos to follow. Resort style living at the gated community of Masters Hill. Views from your windows and patio gaze out over the Carmel Mountain Golf Course. One of two pools with Jacuzzis...
Coming Soon on 10/10
425 W W Beech St #708 San Diego, CA 92101
$488,800
Neighborhood: Little Italy
1
Beds
1
Baths
760
Sq.Ft.
2004
Year Built
2
Days on Site
220024997
MLS
RARELY AVAILABLE stunning residence inside Downtown s Acqua Vista! Step inside this spacious, bright unit with ample storage space throughout, walk-in closet and beautiful private balcony! Never want...
$1,450,000
Neighborhood: Pacific Beach
1
Beds
1
Baths
540
Sq.Ft.
1920
Year Built
2
Days on Site
220025001
MLS
Excellent Pacific Beach development opportunity. Full size 6250 sf through lot with 50' of frontage. Alley access. Highly flexible CO-1-2 zoning.
$884,990
Neighborhood: Orange Glen
4
Beds
3
Baths
2,089
Sq.Ft.
2003
Year Built
2
Days on Site
305801595
MLS
WOW! This incredible 4 bedroom + den, 3 bath home is completely turn-key ready!! Nestled into a very large cul-de-sac lot, the home is set back away from the street giving you ultimate privacy. The...
Open 10/9
14237 Green Valley Court San Diego, CA 92131
$2,580,000
Neighborhood: Stonebridge Estates
4
Beds
3F21/2
Baths
4,257
Sq.Ft.
2009
Year Built
3
Days on Site
220024931
MLS
Fantastic opportunity for an elegant one-level luxury home on a quiet Cul-de-sac in the prestigious Stonebridge Estates of Scripps Ranch; Over a half-acre lot; Lots of custom features with an...
$319,000
Neighborhood: San Diego
3
Beds
2
Baths
792
Sq.Ft.
1987
Year Built
3
Days on Site
220024930
MLS
"Opportunity Knocks!" Investor or End User with a creative touch for this fixer unit with excellent rental income opportunity in a gated community. Buyer and buyers agent to verify all information.
$839,000
Condo: Seaport Villas
2
Beds
2F11/2
Baths
1,421
Sq.Ft.
1987
Year Built
3
Days on Site
305791674
MLS
This one checks all the boxes! Premier Carlsbad location, 2-bedroom 2.5 bath town home, lives like a single family, large backyard. Two car garage, plenty of storage. Only 36 homes in Seaport Villas,...
$2,850,000
Neighborhood: La Costa Oaks
5
Beds
4F11/2
Baths
3,438
Sq.Ft.
2010
Year Built
3
Days on Site
305792600
MLS
Enjoy mesmerizing sunsets over Box Canyon, Batiquitos Lagoon, and out to the ocean from this turnkey La Costa Oaks North home. White water crests and San Clemente Island are visible on clear days....
$599,876
Neighborhood: Hillsborough
3
Beds
2
Baths
1,293
Sq.Ft.
1985
Year Built
3
Days on Site
305795601
MLS
This nicely remodeled unit has tons of features and is waiting for your personal touches. Close to everything with easy access to transportation and freeways. This 3 bed 2 bath offers a large bedroom...
$595,000
Neighborhood: Rams Hill
3
Beds
3
Baths
2,566
Sq.Ft.
1987
Year Built
3
Days on Site
305451563
MLS
Beautifully remodeled home in the desirable San Felipe neighborhood at Rams Hill. Desirable floor plan, with a lovely foyer, living room and kitchen that opens to family room. Hone your culinary...
3
Beds
2F11/2
Baths
2,974
Sq.Ft.
1992
Year Built
3
Days on Site
305455510
MLS
Price Improvement! Enjoy spectacular views from this custom-built Vista home. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths and nearly 3000 sq ft, it is perched on a hilltop with serene surroundings, close to the local...
4
Beds
2
Baths
1,770
Sq.Ft.
1986
Year Built
3
Days on Site
305478418
MLS
**HUGE PRICE IMPROVEMENT** !! UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY TO OWN A PIECE OF BONITA WITH A MILLION DOLLAR VIEWS FOR $ 995,000 LOCATION , LOCATION , CUL -DE -SAC WITH SPECTACULAR VIEWS , HIGHLY DESIRABLE BONITA...
$2,498,000
Neighborhood: Kensington
5
Beds
4F11/2
Baths
3,171
Sq.Ft.
1951
Year Built
3
Days on Site
305796647
MLS
Kensington Mid Century Modern home re-inspired in one of San Diego's most coveted neighborhoods. Remodeled top to bottom with permits, the owners crafted a masterpiece sparing no expense and leaving...
3
Beds
2F11/2
Baths
1,420
Sq.Ft.
2017
Year Built
3
Days on Site
305797881
MLS
Welcome home to this bright and beautifully upgraded townhome in the highly sought-after community of Agave at The Preserve in Carlsbad. This stunning, newly built 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home offers...
$1,280,000
Condo: Skye At Del Sur
3
Beds
3F11/2
Baths
2,315
Sq.Ft.
2019
Year Built
3
Days on Site
220024826
MLS
More pictures coming soon! What a find! Beautiful corner unit that is bright and spacious. Expansive kitchen island with an open and airy great room with access to large patio. Quartz countertops,...
3
Beds
3F11/2
Baths
1,604
Sq.Ft.
2008
Year Built
3
Days on Site
305799845
MLS
Highly desirable corner unit in a sought after school district, a few minutes walk to neighborhood schools. Enjoy your balconys wonderful big sky view as you enjoy your morning coffee or evening tea....

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